70%. Direct deals. 3 continents. And yet—less appetite for ‘the next big thing.’ We’ve watched families step back from seed and Series A—not out of fear, but discipline.
Early-stage used to feel like courage. Today, courage is saying no to noise and yes to control, cash flow, and time. The blind spot we keep seeing: families chasing themes without the operating grip to capture them. Themes are not strategies. Exposure without control is just hope.
What the data confirms—what we live:
• Seven out of 10 family offices made direct investments in private companies in the past year; 40% increased exposure to those direct deals despite volatility.
• Optimism persists—45% expect 5–10% returns for 2025, 38% expect 10%+—but the bet has shifted: fewer early-stage checks; more secondaries and leveraged buyouts; more controlling stakes where families can shape outcomes.
We see the same week after week: it’s a stock picker’s world, but in private markets that means owning the levers—pricing, governance, exits—not just “AI” on a slide.
We’ve helped a family rotate out of three passive venture positions into one controlling buyout with real cash flows, and a secondary block where we set terms—clean covenants, priority distributions, board seats. Same thematic exposure (energy + AI infra), radically different risk. The difference wasn’t timing; it was posture.
If you’re feeling that tension—theme vs. control, exposure vs. cash flow—we’re happy to share the frameworks we’re using to select, structure, and govern direct deals in this environment. Quietly. Strategically.